What will the hot summer months bring from a Spend Management perspective? In this post, I'd like to offer up a few predictions which I'll flesh out in more detail in the coming weeks. Now, any old Joe can offer up his predictions, but this time, I'm going to rate myself later in the year as to how I did. So hopefully since the pressure is on, these will have a better shot at becoming reality. Without further adieu, my five summer Spend Management predictions:
1) Generally speaking, inflation (outside of oil) stabilizes at more historic levels as supply/production begins to catch up with demand and the global commodity thirst grows, but potentially at slower rates (except in oil/energy).
2) Anyone who attempts to predict oil prices will inevitably get burned (don't gamble, but do hedge if you’re worried).
3) At least three new major supply risk catastrophes make the headlines (and continue to draw attention to the underinvestment companies make in supply risk and supplier performance).
4) The Democratic Presidential nominee runs to the center and all of a sudden does what appears to be a 180 degree turn on free trade after securing the nomination (or so many of us hope) giving us the choice of two free trade candidates. Thank you, Lisa, for suggesting this one to me.
5) The US dollar makes a modest (5-8% comeback) against the Euro, the Pound and other major currencies except the Yuan (which continues to float to more realistically -- albeit still inflated -- levels against the dollar).
Stay tuned as I address each of these individually in more detail in the coming weeks.
- Jason Busch