These questions include:
- Does the bailout do anything to get Greece out of its death spiral of a shrinking economy, lower tax revenues, increasing deficit, leading to lower public spending leading to a shrinking economy, lower tax revenues... etc?
- Can a country maintain civil order when half its young people are without jobs (unemployment is at almost 50% now in Greece AND Spain for the under 25s)?
- Will the population of an ancient and proud European country accept defeat and (economic) occupation by another European power?
- If you were a business in Greece, or an individual with flexible assets, would you invest in the country, pay all your taxes promptly and willingly? Or would you look to move as much as possible beyond the reach of what you might perceive as a foreign occupying power?
Peter is spot-on when it comes to a reality check around working with suppliers in Greece and other markets. Right now, organizations with both tier one and multi-tier supply chain exposure in Greece, Spain, Portugal and even Italy would be well advised to develop supply chain risk mitigation strategies and alternatives -- successful EU bailout or not. Or, said a similar way, as Peter puts it: "Keep your supply chain risk management index high for supply to -- or from -- Greece we would suggest, and southern Europe more generally is no better off or stable really than it was a week ago."