Your trusty Spend Matters founder took it upon himself to poll the 24 employees of the extended Spend Matters Network in a prediction market for the Scottish independence vote – with Belhaven Ale promised as an award for those with the closest guesses to the percentage split – and the results could very well mirror that of the actual vote, with the only difference being an above 75% voting rate.
The “No” vote won the day with 50.03% (we can’t make this up) and 49.97% voting in favor or “Yes.” There was one formal abstention (me), because I had one too many drams prior to the vote and in true Scottish fashion, someone had to close out the bar and miss the polls. Note: We asked “voters” for their predicted outcome of the elections in percentage splits – not simply a “yes” or “no.”
The comments (which were also solicited as part of our "get out the vote" effort) are even more fun and telling than the numbers themselves. Here’s a quick list:
- “Those mad Scots...”
- “No. But I will be the one and only to offer this: at some point in our lifetimes we will see a Yay vote. The demographics work that way but I'm betting it won't be this time.”
- "I'm betting on an entirely irrational outcome of heart over head and a Yes majority ignorance to the ramifications of joining the EU -- partially supported by the Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy 2013. We'll all need that wee drink come Thursday!”
- "I'm going to go for a massive changing-of-the-mind-on-the-day vote bolstered by patriotic 16-yr-olds voting for the first time. Yes 56%.”
- “I'll tell yae wan thing - see all this bettin? It does not half give yae a helluva thirst -- I'm off for a wee drink!”
- “Now the other ethnic minority vote [from our Mexican correspondent]…With the inclusion of the 16-year-old teenagers I go with YES.”
- "By the way, team, Nancy has disclosed today that she is Scottish! Helping us fulfill our ethnic minority employment quota…"
- “PJ says it all”
- “Pride is strong. Greed (in a good way) is stronger. At least 54% Nay.”
- “I am going No with a 52/48 split on the basis surely a whole nation couldn’t be that stupid!”
- “The Nays have it. Too much to be lost in banking. Plus, Patrick Stewart is a No. … I don't see how you can have Captain Picard, Sting and Judi Dench on your side and lose. 51-49 Nay.”
- “PRO independence.”
- “Belhaven is delicious, nice call...(even better on tap at the Duke of Perth down the street!)” here in Chicago; the closest thing we have to a Glaswegian pub.
- “I go for INDEPENDENCE for those sorry people, they deserve it from the English, I say they get 52% to go.”
- “Abstain … too many drams last night to make an educated guess.”
So there you have it. For now, let us sign off with the immortal (and morbidly straightforward) words of Fat Bastard:
“I've got a crap on deck that could choke a donkey.”
Let’s hope not …