Will China Slide Into Civil Unrest and a Prolonged Decline?

My blogging-partner-in-crime Lisa Reisman recently penned a piece on Metal Miner with the title: "Is it Doomsday for the Economic Super-Cycle?" The concept of the economic super-cycle in China goes as follows: even with blips in its massive economic boom rate, China will continue to pull through in high single or double-digit GDP growth rates because it is going through its own industrial revolution. And this is not optional. It must grow at these rates to maintain job creation opportunities for the tens of millions of new workers looking for employment every year. In her post, Lisa suggests three different perspectives that provide views and anecdotes about where China really is in its growth cycle and whether or not the economic super-cycle concept is real or fallible.

The final piece is the scariest. Citing a Forbes article by the author of the book "The Coming Collapse of China", it presents examples that China could be in for some very tough times ahead. Consider that China already faces "a shutdown of over 10,000 factories in the Pearl Delta region, poor global demand for Chinese produced goods, and low domestic consumption as a percentage of the economy." If this scenario is the path that China pursues, we should all be concerned for the world economy. For China's growth is just as critical -- although it is certainly linked with -- as that of the US to get the global markets back on track.

Jason Busch

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