Is the Developing Market (China, India) Super Cycle Dead? Or Did it Even Exist?

Perhaps I hang out in odd circles, but the developing market super cycle is a topic that seems to come up in at least some conversations I have with friends and colleagues over drinks. In other words, are China, India and other rapidly developing economies starting down their own, long industrial revolution march and, as part of this journey, capable of sustaining growth without depending on the West -- and will they be able to maintain the growth, revenues and tax receipts that such a transformation requires despite the global downturn? I'm not sure. Over on Metal Miner, my friend and colleague Stuart Burns asks the question: did the supercycle event exist? Is what we observed before the recession "a sudden surge of investment and trade on the back of a distorted world market. Cheap money meets cheap labor born from emerging markets willing to sacrifice living standards in return for industrial growth. China, India and so on will in due course continue on their path of industrialization but one of the premises of the super-cycle -- that the emerging markets were a force for growth in their own right independent of more mature markets -- could be wrong."

What do you think? Is the super cycle dead. And did it even exist in the first place?

Jason Busch

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