Predictions for 2016 – and Happy New Year

- The movement in the oil price will surprise many observers.

- Natural disasters will disrupt supply chains and show that many firm do not have robust risk and contingency plans in place.

- More physical retailers will go out of business as online shopping continues to grow.

- There will be a major scandal / problem in UK government procurement, but the real causes / who should be blamed will never be established.

- Someone we didn’t expect to leave a major procurement job will make a surprising career move.

- A major software firm will have a disastrous year and there will be calls for it to be broken up / sold off / the CEO to resign.

- A procurement software firm will go bust or require major re-structuring.

- Another procurement software firm will undergo a merger that won't be a big success.

- The multi-trillion dollar “opportunity” for supply chain financing will continue to be endlessly promoted. Uptake will continue to be disappointing (by the standards of the hype at least).

- Analytics will solve every problem. Well, that’s what the analytics people will say.

- The first issue of the “new” Supply Management magazine will be a major improvement on the previous version but will prove to be the best edition of the year.

- Procurement Leaders will increase the fees for sponsoring their events.

- Thousands of words will be written about how procurement must focus on value. Most CPOs will be measured primarily on “savings”.

- Adele’s album 25 will continue to sell a huge amount of copies.

- Much loved actors, musicians and authors will die.

- You will continue to do some things you know you shouldn’t. Many will be very enjoyable.

- Some bad things we are worried about won’t happen, some good things we weren’t expecting will. And vice versa.


Of course, all of these predictions are very easy to make. That’s deliberate; if I was any good at real predictions, I’d be a millionaire investor by now. But some might just make you think for a moment; for instance, the problems we foresee (for our own lives or in our organisations) are often not the ones that really turn out to matter.

Another certainty is that life will go on through 2016 for 99.2% (approximately) of the earth’s population. And if you are reading this, you are almost certainly one of the fortunate ones in terms of wealth, opportunity and education within that seven billion population. I know I have to remind myself of that from time to time; so focus on that fact, particularly when you don’t feel at your best.

Enough of the philosophy. We really hope 2016 is a good year for you - Happy New Year!

(We'll be back on Monday).

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